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John Battelle Predictions For 2006

John Battelle has written up his new predictions for 2006. First, I’ll take a look at my analysis a year ago of his 2005 predictions and see how accurate I was, then tell you what I think of the new ones. John’s already done a look at his accuracy.

For his fourth prediction, I still feel traditional media is failing at many of the things new media is doing so well. While there have been a lot of attempts by mainstream media to embrace new ideas and new technologies, most of them have been useless, like calling an opinion column a blog and thinking we won’t notice. They’re learning, but slowly, and I think most of them still don’t know what a “Long Tail” is.
#5 - Yeah, Google didn’t do anything with Blogger, except a few tools to combat splogs. This is a problem, and its the reason why, a year in, MSN Spaces has far overtaken Blogger.
#7 - Google has created a lot of services, but none that can earn non-advertising money, or at least in obvious ways. In fact, they made two services free that previously cost money (Keyhole, Urchin). I’m not sure if they care about diversifying at this point.
#8 - I was wrong, he was right. MSN is growing their search engine carefully, not trying to claim its number one in relevancy yet. Hopefully, when it becomes Windows Live Search, it’ll get a lot more attention. Still, Microsoft needs to realize its marketing department is doing an awful job, and losing them hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars every year.
#9 - I was way off. The AOL Browser was never really marketed, although it is getting a lot of use now with AIM Triton. Microsoft reformed the IE team, and is making waves with IE7, which looks to be good enough to slow Firefox, if not win. MSN 10 never materialized, although the Windows Live software looks promising.
#10 - C’mon, the iPod Video should have been a no-brainer.

Now, onto John’s predictions for 2006. Click to read them in a new page while you hopefully read my thoughts.

#1 - Well, Time Warner is freely releasing a massive archive of TV shows, but not saying anything about remixing. Maybe the Google alliance will further this.
#2 - Google will fail at something, miserably: I wouldn’t be surprised. Google has so many balls up in the air, and its bound to drop one, badly. Book Search seems to be a safe bet, as does Google Talk. But don’t be surprised if a Google service you use often dies an awful, and dissapointing death.
#3 - The privacy thing is going to bite Google in the ass, eventually. Microsoft was convinced it could survive the antitrust litigation, and they were wrong. Google will be no better.
#4 - Google will enter video advertising first. Yahoo will follow, but not this year. Google will make a lot of money on TV ads in 2008.
#5 - Oh, yeah. Windows Live Search should do it. Although it might take until six months after Vista launches to get the whole 5%.
#6 - No way. There is no Real or Netscape in desktop search. Microsoft knows it, and they also have a non-standard team working on desktop search. This should not be a problem. It might suck, but not for this reason.
#7 - And we’ll all buy that issue.
#8 - iTunes is doomed, because it has no competition. Only a free market can negotiate with the RIAA.
#9 - Their lobbyists will force unnecessary regulations that keep their awful industries alive and powerful.
#10 - Google doesn’t want to buy startups “built to flip”. That alone will make this prediction come true.
#11 - I don’t think so. Maybe 2007.
#12 - The breakthrough deal will be around Windows Vista, which will consolidate RSS into a platform that works. Of course, Mac OS will copy it.
#13 - I believe mobile is overhyped. Of course, I carry around a laptop all day, so I don’t have the needs most users do.
#14 - Oh yeah.
#15 - Oh no. Netflix is smarter than that
#16 - John will ruin his own prediction by giving into his publisher, when he writes an extra chapter or two for the paperback.
#17 - FM Publishing will succeed, but only if I get to be a part of the ad network (c’mon John, help me out here!).